Jrising at 00:18, 16 October 2012

2012-10-16T00:18:30Z

New page

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= Open World Project =
Friday Forum
Oct. 19, 2012
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<slide title="Talk Plan">
* Other Projects of Interest
* Motivation and Vision
* Core Elements
* Case Study Projects
* Unified Model of Everything
* Next Steps
</slide>

<slide title="Other Projects of Interest">
* Carbon Transition Working Group
* Himalayan Melt and Flooding
* Peruvian Spatial Fisheries
* Web-Weaver
* Slider Extension
</slide>

<slide title="Introduction">
Many of the human behaviors that drive climate change and
environmental degradation are deeply embedded in our society,
economy, and government, and are mutually reinforcing. Better
modeling of human-natural systems can help in many ways:
* Analyzing feedback loops can help identify '''leverage points''', where small policy changes can have pervasive
impacts.
* Allowing models at diverse scales and contexts to
interact can help scientists '''integrate knowledge'''.
* Interactive models can facilitate '''communication'''
with policymakers and make complex problems intelligible.

The Open Model is a modeling framework aimed at these issues.
</slide>

<slide title="Applicability">
* Systemically intractable due over-determined, reinforcing drives, and spatially heterogeneous.
* Environmental and public health issues
* environmental degradation, agricultural practices in poor countries, obesity, substance abuse, groundwater use, and fishery management
* rebound effects and cross-border shifts (e.g., carbon leakage)

<delay>
'''Something for everyone!'''
</delay>
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<slide title="Big Proposals">
* Fisheries Project
* Climate Behaviors
</slide>

<slide title="Core Elements">
* Amalgamated Modeling
* Multiple Network Maps
* Networked System Dynamics
* Computational Tools
* Integrating Data
* Open Interface
</slide>

<slide title="Amalgamated Modeling">
[[File:Blobs.png]]
</slide>

<slide title="Amalgamated Modeling">
Coupling causes feedback, and models are defined at different scales.

Amalgamated modeling allows models to interact, specialize, and "overlap".
</slide>

<slide title="Bayesian Coupling">
[[File:Amalgelt.png]]
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<slide title="Bayesian Coupling">
For a variable <math>\theta</math> described by multiple models, each
model provides both a PDF across values at a given time <math>t</math>
when run in isolation, <math>p(\theta, \bar{S}^i)</math>, and a
distribution that includes feedback effects, <math>p(\theta, \tilde{S}^i)</math>. The final distribution is
<math>
p(\theta | \cdot) \propto p(\theta) \prod_i p(\theta |
\bar{S}^i)^\lambda p(\theta, \tilde{S}^i)^{1-\lambda}
</math>
</slide>

<slide title="Multiple Networks">
Models use multiple networks simultaneously
* Different paths on which stocks flow
* Structured disaggregations into classes
* Capturing network properties
</slide>

<slide title="Multiple Networks in Ohio">
[[File:Ohionet.png]]
</slide>

<slide title="Networked System Dynamics">
[[File:Netstocks.png]]
</slide>

<slide title="Networked System Dynamics">
[[File:Ohiomod.png]]
</slide>

<slide title="Networked System Dynamics">
Spatial variation matters

[[File:ssdarch-mod.png]]
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<slide title="Self-Similar Networks">
[[File:Selfsimodel.jpeg]]
</slide>

<slide title="Computational Tools">
* Evaluate model performance
* Identify driving feedback loops
* Identify tipping and leverage points
* Construct simplified models for communication
* System Regression: construct models from data
</slide>

<slide title="Open Interface">
* A '''Website Interface''' would allow researchers to explore
the model, run tests, and contribute models. For
policy-makers, the online interface would provide ways to
interact with the model, see results, and outline scenarios.
</slide>

<slide title="Networked Equations Language">
Custom '''Modeling Language''' combines a units-aware equation-like syntax with networks and GIS.

capacity = 1e10 [tons];
rate = 0.0077 [tons/year];
biomass = Stock(1e7 [tons]);
catches = TimeSeries("catches.tsv", [tons/year]);
biomass.IncreasesBy(rate * biomass * (1 - biomass / capacity) - catches);
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<slide title="Toolbox">
Transparently combine Matlab, R, shell scripting, Mathematica and other code.
</slide>

<slide title="Integrating Data">
* Calibration
* Validation
* Filling in missing models
</slide>

<slide title="Unified Model of Everything">
</slide>

<slide title="How Many Variables?">
{| World3/2000 || 283 |-
| System Dynamics National Model || 2000+ |-
| Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential || 56,135 |-
|  environmental feedback loops || 2,675 |}
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File:Ssdarch-mod.png - Revision history

Jrising at 00:18, 16 October 2012