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| <slide header="none" center="both">
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| = Open World Project =
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| Friday Forum
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| Oct. 19, 2012
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Talk Plan">
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| * Other Projects of Interest
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| * Motivation and Vision
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| * Core Elements
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| * Case Study Projects
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| * Unified Model of Everything
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| * Next Steps
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Other Projects of Interest">
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| * Carbon Transition Working Group
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| * Himalayan Melt and Flooding
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| * Peruvian Spatial Fisheries
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| * Web-Weaver
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| * Slider Extension
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Introduction">
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| Many of the human behaviors that drive climate change and
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| environmental degradation are deeply embedded in our society,
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| economy, and government, and are mutually reinforcing. Better
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| modeling of human-natural systems can help in many ways:
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| * Analyzing feedback loops can help identify '''leverage points''', where small policy changes can have pervasive
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| impacts.
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| * Allowing models at diverse scales and contexts to
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| interact can help scientists '''integrate knowledge'''.
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| * Interactive models can facilitate '''communication'''
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| with policymakers and make complex problems intelligible.
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|
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| The Open Model is a modeling framework aimed at these issues.
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Applicability">
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| * Systemically intractable due over-determined, reinforcing drives, and spatially heterogeneous.
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| * Environmental and public health issues
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| * environmental degradation, agricultural practices in poor countries, obesity, substance abuse, groundwater use, and fishery management
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| * rebound effects and cross-border shifts (e.g., carbon leakage)
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|
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| <delay>
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| '''Something for everyone!'''
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| </delay>
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Big Proposals">
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| * Fisheries Project
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| * Climate Behaviors
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Core Elements">
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| * Amalgamated Modeling
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| * Multiple Network Maps
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| * Networked System Dynamics
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| * Computational Tools
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| * Integrating Data
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| * Open Interface
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Amalgamated Modeling">
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| [[File:Blobs.png]]
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Amalgamated Modeling">
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| Coupling causes feedback, and models are defined at different scales.
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|
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| Amalgamated modeling allows models to interact, specialize, and "overlap".
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Bayesian Coupling">
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| [[File:Amalgelt.png]]
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Bayesian Coupling">
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| For a variable <math>\theta</math> described by multiple models, each
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| model provides both a PDF across values at a given time <math>t</math>
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| when run in isolation, <math>p(\theta, \bar{S}^i)</math>, and a
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| distribution that includes feedback effects, <math>p(\theta, \tilde{S}^i)</math>. The final distribution is
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| <math>
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| p(\theta | \cdot) \propto p(\theta) \prod_i p(\theta |
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| \bar{S}^i)^\lambda p(\theta, \tilde{S}^i)^{1-\lambda}
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| </math>
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Multiple Networks">
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| Models use multiple networks simultaneously
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| * Different paths on which stocks flow
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| * Structured disaggregations into classes
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| * Capturing network properties
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Multiple Networks in Ohio">
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| [[File:Ohionet.png]]
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Networked System Dynamics">
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| [[File:Netstocks.png]]
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Networked System Dynamics">
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| [[File:Ohiomod.png]]
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Networked System Dynamics">
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| Spatial variation matters
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|
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|
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Open Interface">
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| * A '''Website Interface''' would allow researchers to explore
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| the model, run tests, and contribute models. For
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| policy-makers, the online interface would provide ways to
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| interact with the model, see results, and outline scenarios.
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Networked Equations Language">
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| Custom '''Modeling Language''' combines a units-aware equation-like syntax with networks and GIS.
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|
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| capacity = 1e10 [tons];
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| rate = 0.0077 [tons/year];
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| biomass = Stock(1e7 [tons]);
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| catches = TimeSeries("catches.tsv", [tons/year]);
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| biomass.IncreasesBy(rate * biomass * (1 - biomass / capacity) - catches);
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Toolbox">
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| Transparently combine Matlab, R, shell scripting, Mathematica and other code.
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| </slide>
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|
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| <slide title="Integrating Data">
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| * Calibration
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| * Validation
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| * Filling in missing models
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| </slide>
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